You Say Potato… I Say The Market is OK…

We all see different things in different objects.  Data though – data is supposed to be cold hard facts.  You’re not supposed to be able to twist data around for your perverted pleasure.

So.  The other day, I made mention of a Forbes article on The Avenues Blog which points to over-inflated property values in the Outer Sunset district. 

And today, I read the news from the National Association of Realtors.  The article is aimed at REALTORS – NOT at the general public. 

Their take on the SAME data that Forbes provided?

That the Outer Sunset is a Neighborhood Where the Bubble Hasn’t Burst!

Pardon my French but WTF?

Two completely different viewpoints taken from the EXACT same data.

The article from REALTOR.org reads:

In a report for Forbes.com, Hotpads.com, an aggregator of rental listings, produced a price-to-earnings spread for each ZIP code in the country’s 40 largest cities by comparing rental costs with buying costs for similar properties, based on number of bedrooms, location, and price per square foot.

A price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, expresses how much a buyer has to pay for each dollar of return. Buyers in high P/E neighborhoods pay a huge premium to live in the area relative to how much it costs to rent a similar property there.

A high P/E can simply mean a neighborhood is overpriced, but it can also indicate where buyers have gambled that the area will ultimately appreciate further, turning an overpaying buyer into a smart investor.

I added the emphasis – because this is where I get thrown for a loop.

So?  Which is it?   

Well – I’m not sure.  Frankly, even I’m confused. 

And each party has different motives. 

There’s no denying that bad news sells.  Is Forbes manipulating the data?

And there’s no denying that if consumer confidence falls further, real estate prices will continue to fall.  So it the National Association of Realtors trying to spin Forbes article to make things look more peachy-keen?

My verdict?  It’s a combination of both.  And neither.  The real answer is that NO ONE HAS THE ANSWER. 

If you need to buy a home, and plan to stay AT LEAST 5–7 years, then chill out.  You’ll be allright.  Prices will appreciate enough to make up for any market slowdown that’s going on now. 

But if you are looking to buy for the short term – then stop and back away from the mortgage.  I can’t think of one good reason to buy unless you like throwing away your hard earned money. 

Want more answers?  Contact me.  I’ll try to walk you through it.  But as you can clearly see – no one has a crystal ball, and even data doesn’t give us enough insight for us to draw any real conclusions.

A New Way to Search Commercial Real Estate in SF

Walk This Way

You probably don’t actually need me to tell you this, but I think it deserves repeating. 

San Francisco is the most walkable city in the U.S.!

WalkScore.com has rated SF as THE most walkable City. 

According to SF Gate:

San Francisco scored an 86 out of 100, besting New York’s 83 and Boston’s 79. Seventeen of San Francisco’s neighborhoods ranked 90 or above – considered a “walker’s paradise” – including Chinatown, the Mission, Nob Hill and Haight-Ashbury.

Even my house out in the Outer Sunset (which many people consider to be the edge of nowhere) scores an 86. 

Well, what the hell does this have to do with San Francisco Real Estate?

Well, people LIKE being within walking distance of amenities.  In fact, people are willing to pay more money to be within walking distance of amenities.  In fact, the SF Gate article predicts that WalkScores will now become an integral part of real estate listings.  In fact, I’ve already started using it in some of my listings. 

Check out the City’s WalkScore by neighborhood, and see how your home compares!  

Oh and SF Gate lists the most and least walkable hoods in SF.

Top 5

Chinatown: 99

Financial District: 99

Downtown: 98

North Beach: 98

Mission District: 96*

Bottom 5

Lakeshore: 66

Visitacion Valley: 70

Twin Peaks: 70

Crocker-Amazon: 70

Outer Sunset: 72*

Now playing: Aerosmith – Walk This Way

Getting to Know Your San Francisco Realtor

What do I have in common with Paris Hilton?  Nothing, but if there was a movie made about my life, I’m thinking she might just have to play the role of yours truly. 

The RERevealed.com web site has been doing a series of “bubble gum interviews” with some of the “elite in Real Estate.” 

“Elite” might be an overstatement since I was included in the ranks – but hell, I’m thinking it might make me mildly famous. 

How does a “bubble gum interview” work?

Lani from RERevealed.com emailed me a list of questions, and I answered them.  Well, actually, I answered most of them, and then substituted a few questions of my own. I mean, would you rather know whether I’m a Mac or PC fan?  Or would you rather know about my passion for ribbon dancing. 

Lani starts by saying:

Thanks to Twitter, Luba Muzichenko (her twitter and her blog) recently became my friend and who wouldn’t follow someone with a bio like “San Francisco Realtor by addiction, San Francisco blogger by choice”??

Check out the whole article to learn more about me. 

One Sick Realtor

 

I’m sick.

I mean “I wish I could go to sleep and wake up when this is over” kind of sick.

I’m like a walking Nyquil commercial – Sniffling, Sneezing, Coughing, Aching, Stuffyhead, Fever. You name it, I have it. The collection of used tissue at my side is rather disturbing, as are the random grunts and moans that are filling the room I’m in.

The worst part – I can’t think straight. And writing a blog post requires at least a minimum amount of thinking.

So – I decided to to not leave you hanging on the edge of your seats and to give you a little shot of San Francisco. No, it isn’t about real estate, though if you made this bird an offer of a hot dog, I’m sure he’d gladly sell his seat to you.

Anyhow – you might see more of these San Francisco snapshots on the blog from time to time.

Todays’s snapshot? Seagull, originally uploaded by amoraleda.

Have a good week, and stay germ free.

The City Update (TM) – Back in Full Effect

Today’s usual “Open Shutter to the Past” feature has been postponed.  I’ve been working the last few kinks out the the new system that will keep the New on Market and Recently sold data that I provide to readers of The City Update(TM) under virtual lock and key. 

But – after a long and hard battle, I’ve persevered, and am once again providing The City Update(TM) readers with all of the secret MLS data. 

What is The City Update(TM) – you ask???

Why it’s only The Best San Francisco Real Estate Newsletter Ever! 

Sent out every Friday, it features new listings, recently sold listings, pocket listings (San Francisco properties that are NOT on the market to the public, but are available to The City Update(TM) readers, market updates, charts, reports, and all sorts of rants and raves written by yours truly.

Sign up by going to the site, or clicking the link on the right.

Oh – and have an awesome weekend!

Surfing for Whales (or at Least Give ‘Em Some Money)

A client (and neighbor) of mine and all around good guy just sent me this invitation, and I am trying to help spread the word! 

The the event will be fun and even if your closest brush with the ocean was the time you accidentally got your shoes wet running from the waves, I’m sure you’ll agree, the cause is a good one.

Here’s the scoop!

On July 26 & 27 Nor-Cal Surf Shop will host a Marine Mammal Surf Festival/Surf Contest to raise awareness of the mass slaughtering of dolphins and whales around the globe.
 
All money raised will be given back to Dave Rastovich’s non-profit organization Surfers for Cetaceans (S4C).

The winning team brings home the trophy to display for one year…

So, we need your help! – Please join the SurfAddict team and help us bring the trophy home. 

 

You can either compete or help sponsor our riders - any contributions greatly appreciated.

Nor Cal Surf Shop

5460 Coast Highway

Pacifica, CA 94044

(650) 738-9283

QUESTIONS???

www.norcalsurfshop.stores.yahoo.net/marine.html

        or
Send an Email

SF Real Estate Blog Reader Asks: What’s The Latest on Chris Daly vs. TIC’s?

Occasionally I get a question from a reader of the blog that’s worthy of sharing with the world – I thought this one was worth sharing. Hope you think so too…

Oh – and if you have questions you’d like answered, email me – I know stuff.

A reader recently wrote in to ask:

Q.  Hi Luba.  I just read your June 18 blog regarding Daly’s proposed ordinance that would place two-unit TICs in the condo lottery and was wondering if you’ve heard any additional news about this.  Thank you.

C.M.

A.  I’ve heard mixed answers and am not sure about the truth of any of them.

I recently heard that Daly is trying to put this legislation on the November 2008 ballot – but he needs the votes of three other supervisors to succeed.

But I also read a post from “anon8mizer” on The Front Steps Comments (and lots of Zephyr Realtor emails that confirmed the scoop) that the legislation is not moving forward, period.  At least not now.

I’d like to believe the latter, but am prepared to deal with the former until I can get my hands on something more official.

New Fast Facts Format Coming to a San Francisco Real Estate Blog Near You

I can’t say I always like the way the San Francisco Association of REATORS functions.  I definitely can’t stand the exorbitant fees they charge us to use the MLS and to be members (and if you’re not a member, you may as well not try to sell real estate in SF.)  And the MLS doesn’t always work as it should. And, well – I’m not here to diss them, so I’ll just stop.

The SFAR actually just did a pretty cool thing and revamped the fast facts they provide to us, REALTORS.

The SFAR hooked up with Terradatum, the award-winning real estate technology solutions company, to imprive the format of market data appearing in the Fast Facts section of REALTOR® Advantage Online each week, which I, then, share with you all.  But it’s not JUST the format that’s improving, the data itself is getting better too.  Now there will Days on Market (DOM) data as well months supply of inventory.  WOO HOO!  Seriously.  WOO HOO!

According to the email I received today from the SFAR:

Beginning with the August 12, 2008, issue of the publication, and continuing weekly thereafter, the Fast Facts section will provide a snapshot of market statistics for San Francisco and Daly City.  A different property type will be featured each week (i.e., Single Family Homes, Condo, 2-4 Units) and statistics will be given for each district 1 through 11, for the city overall (Districts 1-10) and for Daly City (District 11). 

The data Teradatum and the Association are intending to provide appears below…..

Also appearing below is a set of terms and definitions that will be used in the presentation of market data. Although it was published earlier, it is being published again so that readers can more readily understand the data fields presented.

NUMBER SOLD reflects the number of properties in the market segment that closed escrow during the month.

NUMBER FOR SALE is the number of active properties on the market for one day or more that month.

MEDIAN PRICE (SOLD) reflects the “middle” price point of a group of properties that have successfully closed escrow on a monthly basis, i.e. half sold for more and half sold for less than the median price.  Tracking the movement of median prices over time provides a good indicator of the direction market forces are moving. 

If the percentage change is positive between the two periods then there is upward pressure on prices in that market segment. If the percentage change is negative between the two periods then there is downward pressure on prices in that market segment. 

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) reflects how long it has been taking (on average) to draw an offer on a reasonably priced property exposed to the market.  The AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET is defined as:

The average number of days it took all of the properties that went under contract during the period to accept a first position offer.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) is a measure of how long it would take, in months, to sell the existing inventory at the current sales rate for the specific neighborhood and property type.  The MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY is defined as:

The number of active properties on the market for one day or more that month, less the number of properties that have been withdrawn or expired, divided by the number of properties that have gone under contract for the month being measured.

San Francisco Home Sales Data – June 2008

As I do every month, I ran the latest San Francisco real estate sales figures from the month of June for you.  And yes, I know we’re almost in August.  And yes, I know I usually run these at the beginning of the month.  But I was on vacation (and on dial-up) at the beginning of the month.  And then I got busy right when I got back, so here we are – late as hell.  But better late than never, right? 

Single Family homes sales volume is up, median price is down, days on market is up.  Condo/Loft and Co-op sales volume is slightly up, median price is down, days on market is up.  TIC sales volume is down, median price is down, days on market is up.

What’s this all mean?  It ain’t a pretty picture folks.  But, it also ain’t ugly.  San Francisco real estate is still faring much better than the country in general, and one month of lower prices doesn’t a crappy market make.  I’ll be the first to admit (adamantly) that the picture ain’t rosy – but, things could be much worse.  If this trend continues for a few months – then I’ll switch my song from “ain’t rosy” to “it’s ugly.”  But for now – I think we’re still moving along at a pace that’s great for buyers, not so great for sellers and is still, overall, ok for the City.

So here’s this month’s summary of home sales pulled directly from the MLS. Remember, these are all closed sales and not pending sales.

Check back monthly to get the latest facts and figures – and if you have any questions about these statistics, or the market in general, feel free to give me a holler! I’m always happy to talk “real estate!”

Here’s a quick snapshot of the market from June 1, 2008 through June 30, 2008:

Single Family Homes

• 294 Homes Sold
• Median Sale Price was $752,500
• Minimum Sale Price was $130,000
• Maximum Sale Price was $18,000,000
• Median Selling Price was 99% of asking price
• Median Days on Market was 34
• Median Selling Price for homes that sold within 30 days was 103.5% of asking price

Condominiums, Lofts & Co-ops

• 198 Homes Sold
• Median Sale Price was $772,500
• Minimum Sale Price was $150,000
• Maximum Sale Price was $5,000,000
• Median Selling Price was 99% of asking price
• Median Days on Market was 48
• Median Selling Price for homes that sold within 30 days was 103.5% of asking price

TIC’s

• 41 Homes Sold
• Median Sale Price was $609,000
• Minimum Sale Price was $240,000
• Maximum Sale Price was $1,608,000
• Median Selling Price was 100% of asking price
• Median Days on Market was 70
• Median Selling Price for homes that sold within 30 days was 99% of asking price