I guess everyone has a blog these days, including Donald Trump. Now, this man may not know a thing about hair! But I’m pretty sure we can all agree that he knows a thing or two about real estate.

I was just checking out his blog today, and found an interesting little post about the doom and gloom articles out there. Writer Gary Eldred, PhD reminded us that historically, real estate has been a great investment. And that while there have been times when prices have flattened out, or were driven down by outside forces such as job layoffs, real estate always makes a recovery.

But all the while, there have always been doom and gloom writers telling us what a horrible investment real estate is. To give you a rough idea of how real estate has performed over time, in the 1940’s in the Sunset district, you could buy a brand new home for about $5000 (which in today’s money is about $55,000). That same home today is worth anywhere from $650,000 to $800,000 or more. Even if you take inflation into account, that’s about a pretty nice return on your investment if you ask me.

Anyhow, the author of the blog post shared some of the doom and gloom passages that have been published throughout the years, and I thought I’d share them here with you too. Hope you enjoy, and hope you take the bad news from the media with a grain of salt.

“The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.” (Time, December 1, 1947)

“The days when you couldn’t lose on a house purchase are no longer with us.” (House Beautiful, November 1948)

“The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs about $28,000.” (Business Week, September 4, 1969)

“The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000 . . . Housing experts predict that in the future price rises won’t be that great.” (Nations Business, June 1977)

“The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.” (Money, January 1981)

“In California . . . for example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $100,000 houses . . . I’m confident prices have passed their peak.” (John Wesley English and Gray Emerson Cardiff, The Coming Real Estate Crash, 1980)

“If you’re looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore.” (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985)

“Most economists agree . . . [a home] will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980s.” (Money, April 1986)

“The baby boomers are all housed now. They are being followed by the baby bust. By 2005,real housing prices will sit 40 percent below where they are today.” (Harvard Economist, Gregory Mankiw, “The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Coming Collapse of Housing Prices,” Journal of Regional Economics, Fall, 1989)

“Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor in­vestment.” (Kiplinger’s Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993)

“A home is where the bad investment is.” (San Francisco Examiner, November 17, 1996)

“Your house is a roof over your head. It is not an investment.” (Ev­erything You Know About Money Is Wrong, 2000)

“But the real question is, how will [housing prices] look longer term? As I’ve said in the past, I do not think that housing values will be higher five to ten years from now.” (Yale Economist Rob­ ert Shiller, quoted in Newsweek, January 27, 2005)

So if you’re on the fence about San Francisco real estate because of all of the negative predictions, it might be ok to jump off and take an honest look at what’s really going on in the SF housing market. At least, that’s my humble opinion.

Tags: Misc Musings from Your San Francisco Realtor, SF Real Estate Info for Buyers, SF Real Estate Info for Sellers by Luba
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REALTOR Magazine did a nice job of summarizing a recent report provided by Forbes magazine showing that San Francisco real estate is still performing, and in fact is one of the 10 best performing markets in the market.

Here are the top 10 best performing housing markets, according to Forbes magazine, their third quarter median home sale prices and the percentage that prices have risen compared to third quarter 2006.

Salt Lake City; Median Home Sale Price: $246,700; Percent Change: 14.1 percent Charlotte, N.C., $220,000, 11 percent San Jose, Calif., $852,500, 9.4 percent San Francisco, $825,400, 8.6 percent Raleigh, N.C., $229,500, 7.5 percent Austin, $188,200, 7.2 percent Pittsburgh, $127,700, 6.1 percent Seattle, $394,700, 6 percent San Antonio, $154,700, 5.7 percent Portland, Ore., $299,700, 5.2 percent

Source: Forbes, Matt Woolsey (11/21/2007)

What does this mean to you?

Well, if you’re a seller - this is good news because that means your home likely hasn’t lost its value. If it’s on the market now and isn’t selling, don’t fret. This time of year is always tough for real estate here in the City. By spring (if not sooner), the market should be back in full swing again.

If you’re a buyer, don’t be afraid to jump into the market - especially right now. Inventory levels are low, but there are several good values out there - and I mean several. If you want to find out more about what’s out there now and worth buying, let me know. I’m happy to tell you about the deals out there right now. But don’t hesitate too long, because these deals won’t be around forever. It’ll be a few months at most before, San Francisco homes will be selling like hotcakes again (and some still are!) so you really should think about striking while the iron is HOT!

Tags: SF Real Estate Info for Buyers, SF Real Estate Info for Sellers, SF Real Estate Market Conditions by Luba
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Welcome back to the “Over, Under, At” weekly feature. It’s a simple breakdown taken from MLS data that shows the number of closed sales that sold Over Asking Price, Under Asking Price or At Asking Price.

*Just a reminder that new construction sales are rarely included in this list since they don’t get posted on the MLS.

As I predicted last week, sales number are slipping. Single family homes are still closing for over asking, while condos took a make hit in the “Under” category. This may be a sign that if you’re in the market for a San Francisco condo, you might be in luck, and just might be able to find yourself a deal.

Of course, keep in mind we’re just looking at one week of activity in the crazy San Francisco Real Estate market, so next week’s “Over, Under, At” numbers might jump in a totally different direction… but if you’re a condo seller, you might want to take into consideration that the condo market isn’t as strong as it has been in previous years. I’m personally seeing fewer buyers out there in that “middle” price range of about $650K-900K which means you MUST price realistically if you want your home to sell. For the serious condo buyers out there, talk to your REALTOR immediately! You might be able to pick up a decent property at a good price (and I don’t mean cheap folks… SF homes just aren’t cheap, period.)

Here’s a quick breakdown of closed sales for the week from November 17 through November 23, 2007:

Single Family Homes - 27 Homes Sold

Condos/Lofts/Co-ops’s - 17 Homes Sold

TIC’s - 1 Home Sold

Tags: SF Real Estate Info for Buyers, SF Real Estate Info for Sellers, SF Real Estate Market Conditions by Luba
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I guess I haven’t been grocery shopping in a while. When I walked into my local Safeway a few days ago, I looked around and saw Supermarket Plastic Ban Goes Into Effect in San Francisco“>nothing but brown paper bags (and the few canvas and reusable plastic bags that a small number of shoppers had brought with them).

There are several reasons why plastic bags are bad for the environment. Plastic bags litter the streets and choke marine life. They are not reusable. They are not recyclable. And frankly, they’re not even great for getting the groceries home. (I’ve had my fair share of mishaps when a sharp edge of some random package ripping the bag and causing my canned green beans to go rolling down a hill and into the abyss.) With three dogs, I can’t even count of plastic grocery bags to scoop the poop… I’ve been faced more than once with the hand straight through the bag trick (luckily, it’s always happened to me BEFORE scooping poop and NOT during!!!) In a nutshell, plastic bags were horrible all around…. so SF Supervisors got rid of them.

So, with the ban on plastic bags, stores were given the option of using paper bags or biodegradable startch based plastic bags.

According to PlasticNews.com, “Among the superior attributes of the biodegradable bags, which are typically made of starches from potatoes and corn:

– They’re stronger. “The days of double-bagging your loaf of bread would be over,” said Supervisor Ross Mirkarimi, author of the compostable bag ordinance.

– They can go straight into the green recycling bin. They would be clearly marked as biodegradable.

– They’re versatile. Today, far too much food waste heads to the landfill because of what some recycling advocates call the “ick factor.” With a biodegradable bag, you could scoop the food scraps into the bag, then, quickly and neatly, plunk it all into the green bin.

– They’re environmentally friendly. Plastic bags are a huge nuisance: they pose a threat to marine life, they gum up recycling machines and they consume landfill space. “

And they’re right. But unfortunately, the reality is that that plastic bags cost about a penny each, paper bags cost about five cents, but compostable plastic bags made of starch cost 10 cents each, and supermarkets aren’t buying into it. And so supermarkets have opted to ditch plastic all together rather than cough up some extra dough for the compostable plastic bags.

While this does lead to less litter, and save marine animals, it does result in a greater use of paper bags - which leads to cutting down more trees.

So how can you help? Bring your own reusable canvas or reusable plastic bags to the grocery store with you. You can usually buy reusable plastic bags for about a dollar at your local grocery store, or you can spend about $3 for a canvas bag at the stores that do stock them… OR, you can contact me! I’ve puchased a few hundred canvas grocery bags and am giving them away to friends, family and clients. If you’d like one for yourself, drop me a line and ask for one and I’ll find a way to get it to you. Of course, I don’t have a limitless supply - so hurry if you want one!

I apologize, but I am no longer shipping the bags outside of the San Francisco Bay Area.  (I actually no longer ship the bags – I either drop them off locally, or leave them at my office for people to pick up.)

The bags are to help people “go green” but the amount of energy it takes to ship something as small as a canvas bag across the country is very wasteful, as is the packaging required to ship it.

I hope you understand and I apologize for any inconvenience.

Tags: Misc Musings from Your San Francisco Realtor, San Francisco News and Events by Luba
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Welcome back to the “Over, Under, At” weekly feature. It’s a simple breakdown taken from MLS data that shows the number of closed sales that sold Over Asking Price, Under Asking Price or At Asking Price.

*Just a reminder that new construction sales are rarely included in this list since they don’t get posted on the MLS.

The number of closed sales took a dip from last week all across the board, however, that’s a typical pattern for San Francisco Real Estate (the market always slows down around November and December, so do expect the next several weeks to also have low number). Most single family homes still closed above asking price, while more than half of the condos closed under asking. Not a single TIC, however, closed under asking this week.

Here’s a quick breakdown of closed sales for the week from November 10 through November 16 2007:

Single Family Homes - 26 Homes Sold

Condos/Lofts/Co-ops’s - 33 Homes Sold

TIC’s - 7 Homes Sold

Tags: SF Real Estate Info for Buyers, SF Real Estate Info for Sellers, SF Real Estate Market Conditions by Luba
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